Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
