How The Unusual Season Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still