Escalating Rhetorical Battle Between Ethiopian Government and Eritrea Triggers Concerns of Military Confrontation

Increasing apprehensions are present regarding the possibility of armed conflict between East African countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, demands for entry to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory has sparked a heated verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, legally broke away from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict erupted in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Government

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – approximately 60 kilometers from the border - and hinted at the wish to take it by force.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

Ethiopia's ambassador to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Reaction to the Claims

Amid ongoing threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to short statements on social media from Communications Head the minister.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea describing it as "dangerous" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople cautioned on 16 September that attempts to legitimise "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Border

Currently, there are no reports of large-scale army activities in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has broadcast graduation ceremonies of numerous trainees at various military training camps.

The head of staff section of the military, the officer, recently said in an discussion that the army was in a "secure situation" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our opponents".

Historical Origins of the Conflict

For decades from the late 19th century, the territory was ruled by colonial powers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British military before evolving into a federated part of the Ethiopian empire.

But in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A extended internal conflict ensued, concluding with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Independence was then confirmed by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their shared boundary, resulting in war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the both countries remained at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The both leaders signed a statement that the war was over – a decision that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then cooperators in the country's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated again.