A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
